Mar 9 at 10:23PM Fri HK Time (bought 1200 at $177.21 at 10:52PM)
Market Direction Model - Model switches to BUY on March 9, 2018
MDM has switched to a BUY signal. The S&P 500 will gap up above its 50-day moving average given the tone of the markets after today's jobs report.
Mar 12 at 7:05PM Mon HK Time
Friday's jobs report suggested the strongest labor market in two decades and the biggest gain in nonfarm payrolls since mid-2016. The very low unemployment rates seen at home and abroad seem to contradict reality.
Futures are up around half a percent at the time of this writing as the NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ-100 both continue their march into new high ground.
(李順威 牛熊共舞：2018年3月12日 美國2月份就業職位增加31.3萬份，高於預期的21萬份；失業率4.1%，高於預期4%；平均時薪上升0.1%，低於預期0.2%。這組就業數據是最好的「金髮女孩」（Goldilocks Economy）情况，就業增加，但是薪金增長低於預期，反映既有經濟增長，又沒有通脹；此外，失業率上升反映就業人數增加，即是說市場仍然有剩餘勞動力。就業數字公布之後，美股上升。科技股表現最佳，納指新高，2月跌市彷彿成為過去。)
Mar 13 at 9:02PM Tue HK Time
Major averages diverged yesterday with the Dow selling off -0.62% and the S&P 500 -0.13% on lighter NYSE volume. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite, led by large-cap NASDAQ names, posted a new all-time high on slightly higher NASDAQ volume.
Mar 14 at 8:56PM Wed HK Time
Major market averages sold off on mixed volume on a combination of news regarding the firing of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and potential new tariffs on China. Volume was slightly lighter on the NYSE and higher on the NASDAQ as big-stock NASDAQ names came off hard following prior strong upside moves that were arguably short-term overbought. Within the context of the rally over the past several days, yesteraday's pullback so far looks normal, but the situation remains fluid.
Mar 15 at 8:50PM Thu HK Time
Major market averages sold off yesterday, but the selling was primarily seen in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials Indexes. The Dow sold off an even 1% on higher volume as it has been turned back from resistance at its 50-dma while the S&P 500 sold off right down to its 50-dma but held the line by the close. The NASDAQ Composite Index pulled back only -0.19% on lighter volume as it tests its prior new-high breakout of last week.
Mar 16 at 8:43PM Fri HK Time
Major market averages closed mixed as the Dow rallied while all other major market indexes closed down. The S&P 500 closed just below its 50-dma on higher NYSE volume. NASDAQ volume was lighter as the NASDAQ Composite sold off 2/10ths of a percent. It continues to pull back towards its prior breakout point in the 7437-38 price area, but remains well above that price level.
Futures are roughly flat at the time of this writing. Investors are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next week. The fed-fund futures market is betting there is a 91.6% chance of a 0.25 percentage point rate increase on March 21, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.
Major averages have pulled back this week largely due to persistent worries about a potential global trade war, particularly between the U.S. and China. The Trump administration has been aggressive about protective levies. Personnel changes in the White House have also accounted for market instability including the departure of Rex Tillerson as secretary of state and the possible replacement of national security adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster.
Today is quadruple-witching day which often leads to greater volatility and trading volume for markets.
Mar 19 at 8:50PM Mon HK Time
Futures are lower with NASDAQ futures lower by more than a percent at the time of this writing as Facebook disappointed the street on how it manages third-party access to its users’ information after it said a firm with ties to the 2016 Trump campaign improperly kept data for years despite saying it had destroyed those records.. Also weighing on futures overall are concerns of Trump's aggressive stance toward trade policies with China, and the Federal Reserve rate hike when their two-day meeting concludes this Wednesday.
Mar 19 at 11:19PM Mon HK Time (sold all TQQQ at $166.4 at Mar19 11:25PM)
Market Direction Model - Model switches to CASH/NEUTRAL on March 19, 2018
The Market Direction Model has switched to a CASH signal. Best to keep stops tight given elevated levels of volatility along with a growing number of distribution days.
(Position of TQQQ should be closed in large portion no later than Mar 16 as Double Top & Triangle patterns were constructed.)
Apr 11 at 3:56AM Tue HK Time (bought 1000 at $144.3 at Apr 116:48AM & 500 at $143.13 at 9:57PM)
Market Direction Model - Model switches to BUY on April 10, 2018
MDM has switched to a BUY signal. The NASDAQ Composite looks to have a follow through day on its sixth day. A number of leading stocks also look to be turning back up in somewhat constructive fashion.
Apr 11 at 8:28PM HK Time
All of the major market indexes posted follow-through days yesterday, with the NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 Indexes doing so on the sixth day of a rally attempt. As we wrote yesterday morning, the indexes were still in position for follow-through days given that they had held above their recent lows, and that came to fruition yesterday. The issue is now whether the follow-through holds up and where we can find individual stocks in lower-risk buyable positions.
Apr 12 at 8:21PM HK Time
Major market indexes failed to follow-through on Tuesday's follow-through day, pulling back on lighter volume as fears of an impending U.S. missile strike on Syria held sway. The follow-through day remains in effect, but the broader issue is where new leadership can be found as most stocks are moving up from the lower regions of their current chart patterns.
Apr 16 at 6:45PM Mon HK Time
After a follow through day, one should observe whether price/volume action in leading stocks that led up to and after the follow through day was constructive. Also, know that if the major averages have a distribution day within 3 days after the follow through day, the odds of the follow through day failing stand at about 90%. So far, the indices have moved higher without any distribution days but the move has been tempered by the situation in Syria. Thus, the number of leading stocks also seem a bit hesitant to stage strong bounces as the action has remained a bit sluggish.
Apr 17 at 8:09PM Tue HK Time
Major market indexes rallied up to their 50-dmas yesterday and stalled slightly on higher volume. The 50-dma may present a major test for the indexes, but if they can successfully regain their 50-dmas it would certainly add confirmation to last week's follow-through. The primary issue, however, remains finding suitable new leaders that have the potential to post big price moves. So far, the pickings have been rather slim.
Futures are up about half a percent at the time of this writing on positive earnings news out of NFLX which is up about 7% in pre-market trading after it clobbered estimates for subscriber growth in the first quarter, and the company raised its profit guidance for Q2. Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and UnitedHealth (UNH) are also trading higher on strong earnings.
Apr 18 at 7:43PM Wed HK Time
Major indexes gapped above their 50-dmas, adding confirmation to last week's follow-through day.
Apr 19 at 7:43PM Thu HK Time
Major averages were mixed yesterday as they stalled on light volume but remain above their 50-dmas.
Apr 20 at 8:08PM Fri HK Time (sold all TQQQ at $152.56 at Apr 20 9:50PM, WITHOUT CASH signal from Market Direction Model)
Major indexes sold off yesterday on mixed volume. Volume was lighter on the NYSE but higher on the NASDAQ, giving the NASDAQ Composite a distribution day as big-stock index mainstays like Apple (AAPL) and a slew of semiconductor names, including NVDA, AVGO, AMAT, MU, KLAC, and INTC were pummelled.
(東方日報Apr22 Apple兩日挫7% : 蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)供應商台積電日前下調全年銷售預測，分析員隨即紛紛唱淡iPhone銷情，Apple股價上周五(4月20日)收市再重挫4.1%，為二月初以來最傷，收報165.72美元，連同周四跌2.83%，Apple短短兩日便累跌6.8%，市值蒸發約613.5億美元(約4,785億港元)，股價年初以來的升幅化灰。
Apple領跌下，科技股上周五「冇運行」，被稱為「FAANG」的五大科技股中，Facebook(Fb)、亞馬遜、Netflix和Google母公司Alphabet均跌超過1%，拖累美股顯著受壓，道指收市挫201點，報24,462點，連跌三日；標指跌22點，至2,670點；納指跌91點，至7,146點。全周計，Apple累跌5.16%，是「FAANG」中唯一錄得下跌的成員，有分析指這是由半導體股引發的「硬件問題」，Apple雖然不是半導體公司，但卻是大型智能手機硬件公司，故「硬件」領域出事，Apple難以幸免。PHLX半導體指數全周累挫4.4%，美銀美林更料該指數可能跌多4至7%，或意味Apple續有沽壓。)
